The Steam Machine was announced just over a week ago now, and while we don’t know how much the Steam Machine will cost, we also don’t know when it’s actually going to come out. Right now, the only official release date information points to a vague “Coming In 2026” message in the Steam store page.

When I was at Valve trying out the Steam Machine, the company narrowed things down a bit when it told me that the console-PC-hybrid would be launching in Q1 2026, but wouldn’t commit to a specific date. The good news is that either way, we won’t have to wait too long – after all Q1 2026 ends on March 31, so it’s going to be here sometime in the next few months. But can we narrow it down further?

The CES Equation

CES, or the Consumer Electronics Show, is happening from January 6-9, 2026. It’s a show where we generally see all the tech and hardware that’s going to be coming out in the first half of the year. And it’s very possible that the Steam Machine is going to be a major topic there – even if it’s indirect.

You see, I just re-checked the exhibitor list for the tech event and Valve is not going to show up. That’s not surprising, it’s not like Valve has a habit of attending the event in an official capacity. However, Valve representatives were there last year showing off the Lenovo Legion Go S running SteamOS. I don’t know if that’s going to happen again this year, but I do expect Valve could still make some noise at the show.

The Steam Machine is probably the biggest thing in gaming hardware right now, and Valve could capture a lot of attention by announcing the price or the release date during CES. This seems especially likely when you consider that this is a Q1 2026 product that doesn’t have a release date heading into Q1 2026. But, looking at how Valve handled the Steam Deck, it seems more likely that the company will let things cool down for a few weeks before making its announcement.

Playing Preorders Safe

Back when Valve first showed us the Steam Deck in July 2021, it gave us both pricing and a release window, claiming that the handheld would be out for the Holiday season of that same year. However, the release date slipped. The first units didn’t launch until February 2022, and most preorders didn’t make it out the door until that Spring or even later. I know my Steam Deck didn’t show up until the Summer, and I preordered it as soon as I was able.

But Valve is already handling this launch much differently than it did the Steam Deck. Valve opened up reservations for the Steam Deck extremely early – just a day after the initial reveal – asking potential buyers to put down $5 to put their name on a list, along with estimated shipment timing that wasn’t entirely accurate. By being more conservative with its preorder timing, it looks like Valve is trying to avoid some of the confusion that plagued the Steam Deck launch.

What Valve should have done with the Steam Deck is wait until it has a release date before taking preorders. Because while the Steam Deck was up for reservation nearly a year before most people were able to actually get their hands on it, Valve didn’t actually announce its actual February 28, 2022 release date until the end of January 2022. The way I see it, Valve is probably going to do the same thing this time around.

The big difference between the Steam Deck and the Steam Machine launch, then, is probably that Valve’s living room console will go up for preorder about a month before launch – if it goes up for preorder at all. Unless Valve delays the Steam Machine like it did with the Steam Deck, it is starting to look like the Steam Machine release date will get announced at the end of January or the beginning of February, with the actual launch happening a few weeks or a month later. Just don’t expect that actually buying the Steam Machine is going to be a walk in the park.

The NAND Of It All

What sucks about a big PC release in the next quarter is that the PC market is currently going through a massive NAND memory shortage. Essentially, these are the chips that make up RAM, and are causing massive price increases and shortages, according to a post from Bontech Labs. So, one of two things will likely happen. Either Valve has already manufactured a bunch of Steam Machines in the months leading up to the announcement, which would result in a relatively smooth launch. Or, Valve has entered mass production recently, and will have to contend with the massive NAND price hikes that have led to PCs in general getting more expensive to produce. If the latter is true, it’s possible there won’t be many units available for early adopters.

This is one of the major reasons why the Steam Machine probably isn’t going to be a $500 competitor to the PS5, but because costs are so high right now, I could see Valve going for another staggered release. Anyone that’s gone through the pain of trying to get a graphics card shortly after launch knows what to expect here. There will likely be an initial launch of limited inventory, with aftermarket sellers ramping up the Steam Machine price significantly until Valve can catch up with the demand.

It’s likely that even if Valve hits a March 2026 release date, most people won’t be able to get their hands on the Steam Machine until at least June or July. I’d love to be wrong, though. After all, it’s possible that Valve has already made a huge amount of Steam Machines that are ready to go out the door the second the release date hits. Let’s all collectively hope that’s what happens.

Jackie Thomas is the Hardware and Buying Guides Editor at IGN and the PC components queen. You can follow her @Jackiecobra